Commodities

Armenias Grain Export Ban and Its Effects on Eurasian Economies

Armenia’s six-month grain ban to non-EAEU states secures domestic supply, limits leakage to Georgia and Iran, and barely affects regional prices.

By K2 Research Team

Sep 1, 2025, 11:00pm

22 December, 2024  

The Art Of Hedging

Executive Takeaways

Armenia blocked exports of wheat, meslin, barley, maize, buckwheat, sunflower seeds, and sunflower oil to non-EAEU states for six months starting late June 2025. Trade inside the EAEU remained open. (Food Security Portal)

Armenia is a net cereal importer. It buys most wheat from Russia. Formal cereal exports are small. The macro impact on Eurasia is limited. (Trading Economics)

The ban mainly curbs leakage to neighbors outside the EAEU (notably Georgia and Iran) and supports Armenia’s food security amid high import needs. (Food Security Portal)

The move temporarily offsets tariff gains from the new EAEU–Iran FTA for these items when shipped via Armenia. Russia and Kazakhstan can still supply Iran directly. (dea.kg)

Policy snapshot

  • Decision date – June 26–27, 2025.
  • Duration – six months.
  • Scope – wheat, meslin, barley, corn/maize, buckwheat, sunflower seeds, sunflower oil.
  • Coverage – exports to non-EAEU destinations only. Intra-EAEU flows allowed. pastinfo.amFood Security Portal

Armenia’s grain balance

Cereal imports in 2025/26 forecast at ~500,000 tons; wheat imports ~400,000 tons. Over half of needs come from imports, mainly Russia. (FAO UN)

Armenia’s wheat output is small (~170,000 tons in 2024/25–2025/26 per USDA IPAD). (FAO UN)

Formal cereal exports are minor (~US$1.6m in 2024). (Trading Economics)

Why the ban matters

Domestic angle – reduce re-exports and preserve stocks during a tight import year. The government framed it as a food security step. (ukragroconsult.com)

Regional angle – channel grain to EAEU partners first; deter outflows to non-EAEU markets through Armenia. (Food Security Portal)

Trade policy angle – the EAEU–Iran FTA took effect on May 15, 2025. Armenia’s ban limits immediate use of that route for the covered goods, but Russia/Kazakhstan can ship to Iran directly. (dea.kg)

Impact by stakeholder

Armenia

  • Food prices  – lower risk of domestic shortages supports price stability for flour and bread. Monitor retail flour prices and state reserves. (FAOHome)
  • Logistics – fewer outbound grain/oilseed trucks to non-EAEU borders; internal distribution and EAEU-bound flows continue. (Food Security Portal)

EAEU members (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia

  • Supply – unchanged access to Armenian market under the customs union. Armenia continues to source Russian wheat. (FAOHome)
  • Prices – minimal union-wide effect given Armenia’s small export base. Watch Russian export taxes and harvest outcomes for the broader price signal. (FAOHome)

Non-EAEU neighbours (Georgia, Iran)

  • Near-term supply – less scope to source covered goods via Armenia during the ban window. Scale is small given Armenia’s limited exportable surplus. (Trading Economics)
  • Substitution – importers can pivot to direct purchases from Russia/Kazakhstan or other Black Sea origins. The new FTA facilitates EAEU–Iran trade, but not via Armenia for these items during the ban. (dea.kg)

Market signals to track

  • Armenia – monthly CPI for bread/flour and grain import arrivals. (armstat.am)
  • Russia/Kazakhstan – export pace and policy moves that influence Black Sea FOB prices. (FAOHome)
  • EAEU–Iran flows – customs data as FTA ramps. (dea.kg)

Scenario analysis

Base case

Ban runs its six-month course through late December 2025. Armenia secures imports from Russia; domestic prices stay contained. Limited regional price impact. (FAO)

Extension

The government extends the measure into 2026 if import risks persist. Continued restraint on re-exports; negligible Eurasia-wide effect. (Interfax)

Pivot to quotas/licensing

Armenia replaces a blanket ban with licensing or quotas to fine-tune outflows while allowing selective non-EAEU sales. Watch cabinet communiqués for any shift. (finport.am)

Investment view and actions

Grain traders and mills – exposure in Armenia is small; keep positions neutral. Focus risk work on Russia/Kazakhstan harvest and policy moves.

Logistics in the South Caucasus – expect modestly lower outbound grain moves from Armenia to non-EAEU crossings during the window.

Iran buyers – prioritize direct EAEU sourcing channels rather than Armenian intermediaries while the ban stands.

Key facts and dates to remember

  • May 15, 2025 – EAEU–Iran FTA enters into force. 
  • June 26–27, 2025 – Armenia imposes a six-month export ban to non-EAEU states on listed grains and sunflower products.
  • Armenia’s 2025/26 cereal import need ~500,000 tons; wheat imports ~400,000 tons, mainly from Russia.

Appendix - data points

Armenia wheat production ~170,000 tons in 2024/25–2025/26 (USDA IPAD). (IPAD)

Cereal export value ~US$1.6m in 2024 (UN Comtrade via TradingEconomics). Trading Economics

Imports meet over half of cereal demand; Russia is the dominant supplier. FAOHome+1

What to watch next

Any cabinet move to extend the ban beyond December 2025. (Interfax)

Russian export policy shifts that affect Armenia’s import costs. (FAO)

Early trade data on EAEU–Iran ag flows under the FTA. (dea.kg)

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