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Global Research

by K2 Capital Management

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Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

Credo Technology (CRDO): SpaceX’s Worst-Kept Secret Is Now 51% Off, Initiating at Overweight

Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $187. The purple cables in a still from SpaceX’s earnings call are Credo’s active electrical cables, and they are not hidden. What is new is the price: Credo closed at $147.29, 51% below its June high and ~20x our NTM non-GAAP EPS.

K2 Research TeamOct 27, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

Société BIC (BB.PA): Shaodong Makes the Lighters, BIC Makes the Money, Initiating at Overweight

Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of €72. Shaodong makes about 70% of the world’s lighters at a profit of one fen each; BIC’s lighter division earned €216M of adj. EBIT in 2025, at least €0.10 a lighter. The moat is the rulebook, not the factory.

K2 Research TeamOct 24, 2026
AerospacePDF · 11 pp

SpaceX Supply Chain: Five “Essential” Suppliers, One Confirmed at Scale

A social-media post says SpaceX cannot launch without Honeywell, Hexcel, STMicroelectronics, Carpenter Technology and Redwire. We checked each claim against filings, earnings calls and SpaceX’s prospectus: only STMicro’s Starlink chip business is confirmed and material.

K2 Research TeamOct 24, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-27 price target of $44. CoreWeave’s backlog is real; the problem is the spread. We estimate a new megawatt earns a ~5% unlevered return, below the ~9% CoreWeave now pays on secured project debt.

K2 Research TeamOct 23, 2026
Private marketsPDF · 9 pp

Private Equity Hits Subscribe: The Money Is Made at 4x, Not 20x, Initiating Thematic Coverage

In a YouTube channel roll-up the money is made at the entry price, not the exit, and the risk sits with the host, not the multiple. Ten channels bought at 4.0x earn a 27.5% base-case equity IRR on a 9.0x exit; if acquired audiences shrink about 10% a year, the gain is gone. Selective.

K2 Research TeamSep 2, 2026
StrategyPDF · 10 pp

The Viral 138 Million Percent Micron Night Trade Is Real, and We Still Say Avoid

A chart doing the rounds says buying Micron at every close and selling at the next open made over 138 million percent since 1990, while the reverse lost 99%. Both numbers check out, but they are two halves of one ledger. The night trade is a volatility filter, not a money machine, and it fails three tests, taxes, hindsight and decay. Verdict Avoid.

K2 Research TeamAug 21, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

United Airlines Holdings (UAL): The Shockwave Is Still at Sea, Initiating at Underweight

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-26 price target of $75. A ceasefire stops the missiles, but it does not speed up the tankers. United does not hedge fuel, and we forecast FY26E Adj. EPS of $6.33, 49% below consensus.

K2 Research TeamApr 10, 2026
RoboticsPDF · 7 pp

How Actuators Drive 70% of Humanoid Robot Economics

Why the component accounting for 30–50% of humanoid robot cost is the highest-conviction investment in the next industrial revolution.

K2 Research TeamMar 3, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

CF Industries (CF): Made in Louisiana, Priced in the Gulf, Initiating at Overweight

Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $120. What pays when the Gulf burns is nitrogen made from US gas and sold at a price set by stranded Gulf supply and European gas, and CF is the purest way to own it.

K2 Research TeamMar 2, 2026
TechnologyPDF · 7 pp

Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) Equity Research Report

Kuaishou Technology is China’s second-largest short video and live streaming platform, with 401 million daily active users and 735.6 million monthly active users as of Q4 2024.

K2 Research TeamMar 2, 2026
CommoditiesPDF · 8 pp

Indonesia’s 2026 Nickel Policy: Battery Metals and Trade Flows

How Jakarta’s resource nationalism is reshaping EV supply chains, LME pricing and the geopolitics of critical minerals, and where capital should be positioned.

K2 Research TeamMar 1, 2026
Geopolitical riskPDF · 9 pp

Mexico Succession Crisis, the CJNG Power Vacuum and Market Playbook

For markets, the event is not merely a security headline. It is a supply chain and capital flow event with measurable impacts across travel and tourism, hospitality, agri-food supply chains and defense technology.

K2 Research TeamMar 1, 2026
StrategyPDF · 11 pp

The Coldest Play in Retail: Harbin Beer’s Back Rack Hack

In the spring of 2025, Harbin Beer, China’s oldest and most iconic northern lager brand, executed one of the most counterintuitive retail marketing campaigns of the decade.

K2 Research TeamFeb 27, 2026
AlternativesPDF · 11 pp

Laughing at Wall Street: the Chris Camillo Playbook Analysis

Social arbitrage, information edges and how an iPhone beat Wall Street for 17 years straight.

K2 Research TeamFeb 26, 2026
EventsPDF · 8 pp

The Honey Deuce Index: Sales Spike 23% Year-Over-Year

How a $23 tennis cocktail built a $12.8 million annual revenue stream.

K2 Research TeamFeb 25, 2026
CommoditiesPDF · 9 pp

Brazil’s Safrinha Corn: Models, Ports and Export Pace

Brazil’s safrinha corn season, the second crop planted after soybeans are harvested, is the defining variable for global corn supply balances through the second half of 2026.

K2 Research TeamFeb 1, 2026
CommoditiesPDF · 10 pp

Peru and Chile Mine Delays Impacting Copper Supply

Peru and Chile, together responsible for about 40% of global mined copper output, saw a wave of production losses in 2025 that helped turn the 2026 outlook from surplus to deficit.

K2 Research TeamFeb 1, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

F3 Uranium (FUU): Priced Like the Third Exit, Initiating at Underweight

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-26 price target of C$0.15. The team behind Fission Energy and Fission Uranium is real, and the third exit is already in the price: at C$8.6 of enterprise value per Indicated pound, F3 trades above the C$7.7/lb Paladin agreed to pay for Fission Uranium.

K2 Research TeamJan 19, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

US Airlines: The Pill Won’t Fly, Initiating with Delta at Overweight

GLP-1s will have cut US airlines’ fuel burn by about half a cent a gallon by 2028, while EIA’s 2026 jet fuel forecast alone is 19 cents lower than 2025. Buy airlines for fuel, premium demand and balance sheets, not the pill: Delta Overweight (Dec-26 PT $84), United Overweight, Southwest Neutral, American Underweight.

K2 Research TeamJan 11, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp

194 of 207 New York Projects Stop at 99 Units, and That’s Equity Residential’s Moat

Developers filed for 207 New York buildings in the third quarter, and 194 of them stop at 99 units or fewer; 21 stop at exactly 99. The line is drawn by the 485-x tax code’s construction wage floor, and all but one of Equity Residential’s 25 New York buildings sit inside the two zones where that floor is highest. Overweight, Dec-26 PT $72.

K2 Research TeamNov 17, 2025
EquitiesResearch note

Beyond Meat’s (BYND) Short Squeeze Mirage

Beyond Meat’s turnaround prospects remain constrained by high leverage, waning consumer demand, and a shrinking investor base.

K2 Research TeamOct 28, 2025
Equity researchReport · 6 pp

Indofood (IDX: INDF) Equity Research Report

Indofood is Indonesia’s leading consumer staples giant, best known for its Indomie brand, dominant flour milling business, vertically integrated agribusiness and nationwide distribution.

K2 Research TeamSep 19, 2025
Equity researchReport · 6 pp

United Tractors (PUTKY) Equity Research Report

Research on PT United Tractors Tbk highlights resilient revenue in machinery and contracting, alongside a nearly A$1B HPAL smelting investment.

K2 Research TeamSep 16, 2025
Equity researchReport · 3 pp

PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk. (IDX: TOBA) Equity Research Report

Traditionally reliant on coal, TOBA is pivoting toward renewables, electric vehicles, waste management and agribusiness, with a clear goal to phase out coal mining by 2030.

K2 Research TeamSep 10, 2025
CommoditiesResearch note

Armenia’s Grain Export Ban and Effects on Eurasian Economies

Armenia’s six-month grain ban to non-EAEU states secures domestic supply, limits leakage to Georgia and Iran, and barely affects regional prices.

K2 Research TeamSep 1, 2025
CommoditiesResearch note

India’s Rice Export Policy: Spillovers to Asia and Africa

India enters 2025 with record rice availability-146.1 million tons of output, 120.7 million tons domestic use, and state inventories of 67.6 million tons-cementing its role as the global price-setter.

K2 Research TeamAug 25, 2025
SportsResearch note

Padelnomics: The Economics Behind Padel

Padel is a rapidly growing sport becoming a global business through rising demand and court expansion.

K2 Research TeamAug 18, 2025
AquacultureResearch note

Why You Should Thank Private Equity For Your Sushi

A field note on Baja Aqua-Farms, bluefin tuna sushi supply, and why PE capital is shaping what ends up on your plate.

K2 Research TeamAug 15, 2025
Natural gasResearch note

EU Pushes to Shut Remaining Russian Gas Loopholes

The EU is moving to shut down Russian Gas Loopholes, targeting hidden flows through pipelines like TurkStream as it prepares for a full ban by 2027.

K2 Research TeamAug 5, 2025
Global tradeResearch note

Panama Canal Constraints 2025: Costs for Grain and LNG

Persistent drought conditions, delayed water infrastructure, and shifting trade routes are reshaping global shipping flows through the Panama Canal.

K2 Research TeamJun 11, 2025
Foreign affairsResearch note

Red Sea Shipping Risk With Oil and Container Routes 2025

Over 80% of world goods trade moves by sea, and Houthi disruptions have lifted freight costs by up to 30%, extended transit times by 10–14 days, and drained Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues by 40%.

K2 Research TeamJun 8, 2025
CommoditiesResearch note

Palm Oil vs Soy Oil 2025: Price Spread and Policy Drivers

Indonesia is implementing a B40 biodiesel blend in 2025 and preparing to roll out B50 by early 2026, diverting an estimated 18 million MT of crude palm oil into domestic energy use.

K2 Research TeamMay 27, 2025
CommoditiesResearch note

China’s Steel Output 2025: Iron Ore Demand Outlook

China’s steel production is projected to remain below its 2020 peak as the property slowdown, decarbonisation goals, and tighter credit policies weigh on construction.

K2 Research TeamMay 21, 2025