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CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-27 price target of $44. CoreWeave’s backlog is real; the problem is the spread. We estimate a new megawatt earns a ~5% unlevered return, below the ~9% CoreWeave now pays on secured project debt.

By K2 Research TeamOct 23, 2026PDF · 9 pages

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-27 price target of $44. CoreWeave’s backlog is real; the problem is the spread. We estimate a new megawatt earns a ~5% unlevered return, below the ~9% CoreWeave now pays on secured project debt.

What’s inside

  1. Initiating at Underweight, Dec-27 PT $44
  2. Negative carry is the thesis, not demand
  3. The Cisco parallel, corrected
  4. Summary investment thesis and valuation
  5. Capital structure
  6. Financing and capex update
  7. 2Q26 summary
  8. CoreWeave Dec-27 PT methodology
  9. The 2000 template, rhyme by rhyme
  10. Decomposing NVIDIA’s “half a trillion”
  11. What the credit market implies
  12. Risks to rating and price target
  13. What would make us wrong?

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