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United Airlines Holdings (UAL): The Shockwave Is Still at Sea, Initiating at Underweight

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-26 price target of $75. A ceasefire stops the missiles, but it does not speed up the tankers. United does not hedge fuel, and we forecast FY26E Adj. EPS of $6.33, 49% below consensus.

By K2 Research TeamApr 10, 2026PDF · 9 pages

Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-26 price target of $75. A ceasefire stops the missiles, but it does not speed up the tankers. United does not hedge fuel, and we forecast FY26E Adj. EPS of $6.33, 49% below consensus.

What’s inside

  1. Initiating at Underweight, Dec-26 PT $75
  2. The fuel bill arrives before the fare increases
  3. Bicycle-speed barrels, corrected
  4. Summary investment thesis and valuation
  5. Fuel exposure
  6. Fuel and capacity update
  7. 4Q25 summary
  8. United Airlines Dec-26 PT methodology
  9. United Airlines earnings trends
  10. Bicycle speed: why the shock arrives late
  11. Paper barrels got the ceasefire, physical ones did not
  12. Oil shocks and US airlines: what rhymes and what does not
  13. Risks to rating and price target
  14. What would make us wrong?
  15. Signposts

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CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight

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CF Industries (CF): Made in Louisiana, Priced in the Gulf, Initiating at Overweight

Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $120. What pays when the Gulf burns is nitrogen made from US gas and sold at a price set by stranded Gulf supply and European gas, and CF is the purest way to own it.

K2 Research TeamMar 2, 2026