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Equity research
CF Industries (CF): Made in Louisiana, Priced in the Gulf, Initiating at Overweight
Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $120. What pays when the Gulf burns is nitrogen made from US gas and sold at a price set by stranded Gulf supply and European gas, and CF is the purest way to own it.
Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $120. What pays when the Gulf burns is nitrogen made from US gas and sold at a price set by stranded Gulf supply and European gas, and CF is the purest way to own it.
What’s inside
- Initiating at Overweight, Dec-27 PT $120
- The spread is the thesis
- The trade, corrected
- Summary investment thesis and valuation
- Ammonia cash cost by gas basis
- Capital allocation and capex update
- 4Q25 summary
- CF Industries Dec-27 PT methodology
- CF Industries earnings trends
- Then and now: which shock is this?
- The spread: why Louisiana gas is the asset
- Not all fertiliser is nitrogen
- Risks to rating and price target
- What would make us wrong?
- Signposts
More research
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
Société BIC (BB.PA): Shaodong Makes the Lighters, BIC Makes the Money, Initiating at Overweight
Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of €72. Shaodong makes about 70% of the world’s lighters at a profit of one fen each; BIC’s lighter division earned €216M of adj. EBIT in 2025, at least €0.10 a lighter. The moat is the rulebook, not the factory.
K2 Research TeamOct 24, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight
Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-27 price target of $44. CoreWeave’s backlog is real; the problem is the spread. We estimate a new megawatt earns a ~5% unlevered return, below the ~9% CoreWeave now pays on secured project debt.
K2 Research TeamOct 23, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
United Airlines Holdings (UAL): The Shockwave Is Still at Sea, Initiating at Underweight
Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-26 price target of $75. A ceasefire stops the missiles, but it does not speed up the tankers. United does not hedge fuel, and we forecast FY26E Adj. EPS of $6.33, 49% below consensus.
K2 Research TeamApr 10, 2026