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US Airlines: The Pill Won’t Fly, Initiating with Delta at Overweight
GLP-1s will have cut US airlines’ fuel burn by about half a cent a gallon by 2028, while EIA’s 2026 jet fuel forecast alone is 19 cents lower than 2025. Buy airlines for fuel, premium demand and balance sheets, not the pill: Delta Overweight (Dec-26 PT $84), United Overweight, Southwest Neutral, American Underweight.
GLP-1s will have cut US airlines’ fuel burn by about half a cent a gallon by 2028, while EIA’s 2026 jet fuel forecast alone is 19 cents lower than 2025. Buy airlines for fuel, premium demand and balance sheets, not the pill: Delta Overweight (Dec-26 PT $84), United Overweight, Southwest Neutral, American Underweight.
What’s inside
- Initiating: Delta Overweight, Dec-26 PT $84
- The pill is a rounding error; fuel is not
- The gearing story, corrected
- Summary investment thesis and valuation
- Fuel vs. the pill: big-four pre-tax impact
- Fuel and capacity update
- 3Q25 summary (Delta)
- Delta Air Lines Dec-26 PT methodology
- Delta Air Lines earnings trends
- The arithmetic of a lighter passenger
- Fuel is the heavyweight: who is geared to what
- Coverage summary and valuation
- Risks to rating and price target
- What would make us wrong?
- Other coverage: United, Southwest and American
More research
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
Société BIC (BB.PA): Shaodong Makes the Lighters, BIC Makes the Money, Initiating at Overweight
Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of €72. Shaodong makes about 70% of the world’s lighters at a profit of one fen each; BIC’s lighter division earned €216M of adj. EBIT in 2025, at least €0.10 a lighter. The moat is the rulebook, not the factory.
K2 Research TeamOct 24, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight
Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-27 price target of $44. CoreWeave’s backlog is real; the problem is the spread. We estimate a new megawatt earns a ~5% unlevered return, below the ~9% CoreWeave now pays on secured project debt.
K2 Research TeamOct 23, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
United Airlines Holdings (UAL): The Shockwave Is Still at Sea, Initiating at Underweight
Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-26 price target of $75. A ceasefire stops the missiles, but it does not speed up the tankers. United does not hedge fuel, and we forecast FY26E Adj. EPS of $6.33, 49% below consensus.
K2 Research TeamApr 10, 2026