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194 of 207 New York Projects Stop at 99 Units, and That’s Equity Residential’s Moat

Developers filed for 207 New York buildings in the third quarter, and 194 of them stop at 99 units or fewer; 21 stop at exactly 99. The line is drawn by the 485-x tax code’s construction wage floor, and all but one of Equity Residential’s 25 New York buildings sit inside the two zones where that floor is highest. Overweight, Dec-26 PT $72.

By K2 Research TeamNov 17, 2025PDF · 9 pages

Developers filed for 207 New York buildings in the third quarter, and 194 of them stop at 99 units or fewer; 21 stop at exactly 99. The line is drawn by the 485-x tax code’s construction wage floor, and all but one of Equity Residential’s 25 New York buildings sit inside the two zones where that floor is highest. Overweight, Dec-26 PT $72.

What’s inside

  1. Initiating at Overweight, Dec-26 PT $72
  2. The 99-unit ceiling is a moat where EQR owns
  3. The popular 485-x story, corrected
  4. Summary investment thesis and valuation
  5. New York exposure
  6. New York and policy update
  7. 3Q25 summary
  8. Equity Residential Dec-26 PT methodology
  9. Equity Residential earnings trends
  10. Why New York’s pipeline stops at 99 units
  11. The last 421-a wave is landing, then the towers stop
  12. What it means for EQR
  13. Risks to rating and price target
  14. What would make us wrong?
  15. Signposts

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CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight

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K2 Research TeamOct 23, 2026