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Commodities
Brent Fell to $71 With the Strait Still Shut
Brent settled at $71.57 on 1 July, 21% below its 11 June close and 40% below its 31 March peak, while Gulf crude exports were still about 6 mb/d short of a year earlier. It was a flush, not a reopening: stranded tankers, emergency stocks and departing funds hit the front of the curve. Our probability-weighted forecasts are $76 for 4Q26 and $67 for 2027: buy Q4, sell 2027.
Brent settled at $71.57 on 1 July, 21% below its 11 June close and 40% below its 31 March peak, while Gulf crude exports were still about 6 mb/d short of a year earlier. It was a flush, not a reopening: stranded tankers, emergency stocks and departing funds hit the front of the curve. Our probability-weighted forecasts are $76 for 4Q26 and $67 for 2027: buy Q4, sell 2027.
What’s inside
- Brent fell to $71 with the Strait still half shut: buy Q4, sell 2027
- Half open is not open
- Three of the four sources of oil were one-offs
- Products stayed tight
- How Brent got to $71
- Why $71 is not a floor
- 2027 is a different market
- Forecast calculation and key risks
- Trade ideas
- What would make us wrong?
- Signposts
More research
CommoditiesPDF · 8 pp
Indonesia’s 2026 Nickel Policy: Battery Metals and Trade Flows
How Jakarta’s resource nationalism is reshaping EV supply chains, LME pricing and the geopolitics of critical minerals, and where capital should be positioned.
K2 Research TeamMar 1, 2026
CommoditiesPDF · 9 pp
Brazil’s Safrinha Corn: Models, Ports and Export Pace
Brazil’s safrinha corn season, the second crop planted after soybeans are harvested, is the defining variable for global corn supply balances through the second half of 2026.
K2 Research TeamFeb 1, 2026
CommoditiesPDF · 10 pp
Peru and Chile Mine Delays Impacting Copper Supply
Peru and Chile, together responsible for about 40% of global mined copper output, saw a wave of production losses in 2025 that helped turn the 2026 outlook from surplus to deficit.
K2 Research TeamFeb 1, 2026