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Commodities

Japan’s ¥2,000 Stockpile Rice Fixed the Shelves, Not the CPI

Japan’s supermarket rice average hit a record ¥4,285 per 5kg in mid-May, then fell 11.3% in five weeks once stockpile rice at about ¥2,000 reached 47,433 stores. Branded rice fell only 2.9%, and the CPI prices only single-source rice, so the cheap bag barely registers in inflation; base effects will do that job instead. Fade the rice wholesalers, down 10.4% against TOPIX since the minister was replaced.

By K2 Research TeamJul 2, 2025PDF · 9 pages
Japan’s ¥2,000 Stockpile Rice Fixed the Shelves, Not the CPI

Japan’s supermarket rice average hit a record ¥4,285 per 5kg in mid-May, then fell 11.3% in five weeks once stockpile rice at about ¥2,000 reached 47,433 stores. Branded rice fell only 2.9%, and the CPI prices only single-source rice, so the cheap bag barely registers in inflation; base effects will do that job instead. Fade the rice wholesalers, down 10.4% against TOPIX since the minister was replaced.

What’s inside

  1. Japan’s rice hit a record ¥4,285, and the fix came from the government’s warehouse
  2. From shortage to warehouse
  3. The warehouse, line by line
  4. The CPI counts the rice the warehouse did not sell
  5. Base effects will do what the warehouse cannot
  6. The rice trade peaked with the old minister
  7. Trade ideas
  8. What would make us wrong?
  9. Signposts
  10. Claims, checked

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