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SanDisk Is Priced for a Worse Bust Than 2022, and Kioxia Only Said Flat

SanDisk fell 13.5% after record results ($11.03bn of revenue and $49.51 of non-GAAP EPS) when its fab partner Kioxia guided flat, and most of the fall was a semiconductor sell-off. At $1,150.89 the shares already assume NAND prices fall 61% by the end of 2028, more than the 52-54% fall of 2022-23. We initiate at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $1,975 (+71.6%), or $246.88 after the 8-for-1 split.

By K2 Research TeamOct 30, 2026PDF · 9 pages
SanDisk Is Priced for a Worse Bust Than 2022, and Kioxia Only Said Flat

SanDisk fell 13.5% after record results ($11.03bn of revenue and $49.51 of non-GAAP EPS) when its fab partner Kioxia guided flat, and most of the fall was a semiconductor sell-off. At $1,150.89 the shares already assume NAND prices fall 61% by the end of 2028, more than the 52-54% fall of 2022-23. We initiate at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $1,975 (+71.6%), or $246.88 after the 8-for-1 split.

What’s inside

  1. Priced for a bust Kioxia did not call: initiating Overweight, Dec-27 PT $1,975
  2. Friday, in order
  3. What Kioxia said, and what it did not
  4. Why we initiate at Overweight
  5. What the price is saying
  6. Kioxia’s results matter to SanDisk almost as much as its own
  7. Watching Tokyo does not give an edge
  8. Multiples fall as earnings rise, until they do not
  9. Supply is the risk, and it has a date
  10. Price target calculation and key risks
  11. What would make us wrong?
  12. Signposts

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