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Neoclouds Fell Up to 17% This Week, and Beta Explains Nearly All of It

All four neoclouds fell more than the Nasdaq-100’s 4.8% after Microsoft’s and Alphabet’s capex misses, from SpaceX (-7.2%) to IREN (-17.0%), and beta explains each move to within 3pp. We reiterate Overweight on Nebius (PT $207, now +34% upside) and IREN (PT $37), and Underweight on SpaceX (PT $90) and CoreWeave (PT $44).

By K2 Research TeamOct 31, 2026PDF · 9 pages
Neoclouds Fell Up to 17% This Week, and Beta Explains Nearly All of It

All four neoclouds fell more than the Nasdaq-100’s 4.8% after Microsoft’s and Alphabet’s capex misses, from SpaceX (-7.2%) to IREN (-17.0%), and beta explains each move to within 3pp. We reiterate Overweight on Nebius (PT $207, now +34% upside) and IREN (PT $37), and Underweight on SpaceX (PT $90) and CoreWeave (PT $44).

What’s inside

  1. It was the beta, not the capex
  2. What changed: two capex misses and a near-correction
  3. Capex beats stopped paying in 2026
  4. The brief’s maths at Friday’s prices
  5. The next two weeks decide it
  6. Since our initiation: beta, not news
  7. Microsoft’s delay is about timing, not demand
  8. Capex beats no longer lift the group
  9. SpaceX: the brief’s strengths are real, and priced
  10. Ratings, price targets and key risks
  11. Nebius (NBIS)
  12. IREN (IREN)
  13. SpaceX (SPCX)
  14. CoreWeave (CRWV)
  15. What would make us wrong?
  16. Signposts

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