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Alphabet’s $500bn One-Day Fall Came From Its Own Results

Alphabet lost about $500bn of value on 29 October, falling 12.6% on its own 3Q26 results before Reddit had even reported: Search grew 12% against about 15% expected and paid clicks slowed to 8%. We initiate Neutral on Alphabet (PT $305) and Overweight on Reddit (PT $130).

By K2 Research TeamOct 31, 2026PDF · 9 pages
Alphabet’s $500bn One-Day Fall Came From Its Own Results

Alphabet lost about $500bn of value on 29 October, falling 12.6% on its own 3Q26 results before Reddit had even reported: Search grew 12% against about 15% expected and paid clicks slowed to 8%. We initiate Neutral on Alphabet (PT $305) and Overweight on Reddit (PT $130).

What’s inside

  1. Wrong culprit, real problem: initiating Neutral on Alphabet and Overweight on Reddit
  2. Google fell first
  3. Volume, not price, has carried Search
  4. What trades, and what does not
  5. This time the scare is in Alphabet’s own numbers
  6. Traffic is leaving publishers, not Google
  7. Reddit: users fell, revenue has not
  8. Nebius is long Alphabet’s capex
  9. Price target calculation and key risks
  10. Alphabet (GOOGL)
  11. Reddit (RDDT)
  12. Nebius (NBIS)
  13. What would make us wrong?
  14. Signposts

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