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Equity research
Anthropic’s $120bn Deal Is 6% of SpaceX and 2.2x Nebius, So We’d Rather Own Nebius
SpaceX is the best-capitalised neocloud we cover, and the dearest: at $1.97tn the market pays about $1.4tn, or 46x annualised revenue, for its AI segment. We initiate on four neoclouds: Underweight SpaceX (PT $90), Overweight Nebius (PT $207) and IREN (PT $37), and reiterate Underweight CoreWeave (PT $44).
SpaceX is the best-capitalised neocloud we cover, and the dearest: at $1.97tn the market pays about $1.4tn, or 46x annualised revenue, for its AI segment. We initiate on four neoclouds: Underweight SpaceX (PT $90), Overweight Nebius (PT $207) and IREN (PT $37), and reiterate Underweight CoreWeave (PT $44).
What’s inside
- Best company, not the best stock: initiating on four neoclouds
- The $120bn, decomposed
- Why the stock did not move
- Cheap got cheaper
- EV/ARR: the brief’s maths, rebuilt
- SpaceX’s 13 GW is a target, not a funded plan
- Pair: long Nebius, short SpaceX
- Contract events: the pop is the trade
- Price target calculation and key risks
- SpaceX (SPCX)
- Nebius (NBIS)
- IREN (IREN)
- CoreWeave (CRWV)
- What would make us wrong?
- Signposts
More research
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
Credo Technology (CRDO): SpaceX’s Worst-Kept Secret Is Now 51% Off
Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of $187. The purple cables in a still from SpaceX’s earnings call are Credo’s active electrical cables, and they are not hidden. What is new is the price: Credo closed at $147.29, 51% below its June high and ~20x our NTM non-GAAP EPS.
K2 Research TeamOct 27, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
Société BIC (BB.PA): Shaodong Makes the Lighters, BIC Makes the Money, Initiating at Overweight
Initiating at Overweight with a Dec-27 price target of €72. Shaodong makes about 70% of the world’s lighters at a profit of one fen each; BIC’s lighter division earned €216M of adj. EBIT in 2025, at least €0.10 a lighter. The moat is the rulebook, not the factory.
K2 Research TeamOct 24, 2026
Equity researchPDF · 9 pp
CoreWeave (CRWV): Cisco Had Customers Like This, Initiating at Underweight
Initiating at Underweight with a Dec-27 price target of $44. CoreWeave’s backlog is real; the problem is the spread. We estimate a new megawatt earns a ~5% unlevered return, below the ~9% CoreWeave now pays on secured project debt.
K2 Research TeamOct 23, 2026