The 22 July joint statement swaps a 19% US tariff, down from 32%, for zero tariffs on about 99% of US goods and $22.7bn of purchase pledges, more than any other ASEAN deal. Markets paid almost nothing for it: about 70% of the Jakarta Composite’s gain since 14 July came from one stock, DCII. Own the US-exposed exporters selectively, not the index.

What’s inside

1. Indonesia bought its way from 32% to 19%: own the exporters, not the index
2. The pledges are half a deal
3. The winners are real but small on the exchange
4. From 32% to 19% in 104 days
5. The 32% was never priced, so the 19% could not be
6. What is driving Indonesian assets instead
7. Who is paying
8. Indonesia paid more than its peers for the same rate
9. Purchase pledges: credible on farm goods, not on energy or jets
10. Winners and losers
11. Trade ideas and verdicts
12. What would make us wrong?
13. Signposts