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Ras Laffan Lost 17% of Its Capacity, and Asia Pays for the Repair Years

Iran’s strikes of 18-19 March put Ras Laffan Trains 4 and 6, 12.8 mtpa or 17% of Qatar’s capacity, out for three to five years. Our repair-years model adds $114bn to Asia’s LNG import bill over 2026-29, and the market sold the wrong payers. We initiate Overweight on Tokyo Gas (PT ¥8,500) and Petronet LNG (PT Rs350), Underweight on Korea Gas (PT W35,500), and Neutral on Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside.

By K2 Research TeamMay 12, 2026PDF · 11 pages
Ras Laffan Lost 17% of Its Capacity, and Asia Pays for the Repair Years

Iran’s strikes of 18-19 March put Ras Laffan Trains 4 and 6, 12.8 mtpa or 17% of Qatar’s capacity, out for three to five years. Our repair-years model adds $114bn to Asia’s LNG import bill over 2026-29, and the market sold the wrong payers. We initiate Overweight on Tokyo Gas (PT ¥8,500) and Petronet LNG (PT Rs350), Underweight on Korea Gas (PT W35,500), and Neutral on Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside.

What’s inside

  1. Ras Laffan lost 17% of its capacity, and Asia pays for the repair years
  2. 17% for three to five years, and the strait is largely shut
  3. The repair years are 2027-29, and the curve stops at 2027
  4. Who actually pays
  5. What the market has priced
  6. The two numbers that would change our minds
  7. Price target calculation and key risks
  8. Tokyo Gas (9531 JT)
  9. Petronet LNG (PLNG IN)
  10. Korea Gas (036460 KS)
  11. Venture Global (VG)
  12. Cheniere Energy (LNG)
  13. Woodside Energy (WDS AU)
  14. What would make us wrong?
  15. Signposts
  16. Methodology

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