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More Than Half of Mexico’s World Cup Windfall Is Beer? Closer to 5%

A widely quoted reading of Deloitte’s World Cup study says more than half of Mexico’s US$2.73bn windfall is beer, but the 55-65% is the alcoholic share of a US$181m household basket. Our bottom-up estimate is 32m extra litres, US$137m at consumer prices, about 5%. We initiate Overweight on AB InBev (PT €79) and Neutral on Heineken (PT €71), FEMSA (PT Ps219) and OMA (PT Ps226).

By K2 Research TeamJun 9, 2026PDF · 9 pages
More Than Half of Mexico’s World Cup Windfall Is Beer? Closer to 5%

A widely quoted reading of Deloitte’s World Cup study says more than half of Mexico’s US$2.73bn windfall is beer, but the 55-65% is the alcoholic share of a US$181m household basket. Our bottom-up estimate is 32m extra litres, US$137m at consumer prices, about 5%. We initiate Overweight on AB InBev (PT €79) and Neutral on Heineken (PT €71), FEMSA (PT Ps219) and OMA (PT Ps226).

What’s inside

  1. More than half of Mexico’s World Cup windfall is beer? Closer to 5%
  2. Half of a US$181m basket
  3. What the beer is worth
  4. Hosts lag while the ball rolls
  5. The headline, decomposed
  6. Sizing the beer bottom-up
  7. From litres to EBITDA
  8. The sponsor’s World Cup is global
  9. Airports: expectations ahead of arithmetic
  10. The tournament trade has not worked
  11. Price target calculation and key risks
  12. AB InBev (ABI BB)
  13. Heineken (HEIA NA)
  14. FEMSA (FEMSAUBD MM)
  15. OMA (OMAB MM)
  16. What would make us wrong?
  17. Signposts

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